Question
To provide a written response re public session question - ‘While there is no clear path in sight for a resolution to the chronic budget shortfall, can you share with us the numeric consequences on our citizens, especially our young, old and vulnerable compared to what they were 3-5 years ago? And how more likely will these groups be to abuse, harm and injury than they might have been if your force had been allowed to grow instead of decline?’
Answer
The PSNI is continually adjusting its policing model based on available budgets rather than policing needs. This is creating an unsustainable and increasing gap between demand and the capacity and capability of the PSNI to service it, with increasing risk of failing victims, local communities and its workforce.
In the last 5 years, PSNI has seen a decline in headcount from 6943 officers to 6192. This is the lowest in PSNI history with a current recovery plan requiring over £200m over 3 years in an attempt to reach 7,000 by 2028.
This leads to a reduced protective capacity and extends the exposure window to high harm cases and increases the chances of repeat victimisation. Having a smaller deployable frontline constrains our effectiveness to a timely response and early arrest opportunities in priority incidents.
The neighbourhood resource is shrinking where our NPT model 3-5 years ago was designed to be more than 900 officers we are now down at near 500 – a reduction of 400 officers. This reduction and reduced visibility results in less prevention and deterrence of crime in our communities. The impacts the wider community including those more vulnerable members within communities.
Since 2020, we have 751 fewer officers. This equates to approximately a million fewer officer hours each year. Had we been able to grow towards 7,500 officers, the risk uplift would likely be lower than what we face today.
The capacity to investigate crime is being reduced and slowed. The workforce in our crime department has reduced by some 14% - that is 250 less officers and staff to investigate.
- Cold cases - not sufficient resources to get back to these investigations in a
timely manner
-Higher caseloads - personal impact on officers. E.g. Offender Management -
with offender management caseload ratio per officer well in excess of
acceptable levels.
-Cyber/ on-line crime – Police need to be able to keep pace with criminals
online – this has an impact on vulnerable groups.
-Non – emergency calls are taking longer and the public are waiting longer.
-Critical roles supporting front line policing are also impacted e.g. Reliance on
mutual aid for transport - We had 170 staff in 2000, now down to 70 in 2025 in keeping our response teams operational
Despite a reduced headcount and funding difficulties, we will continue to keep our communities safe by continuing to respond to calls for service; deliver problem solving and work to deliver efficiencies where we can. We will continue to digitise the front line and expand our capabilities in online reporting and provision of the Video Officer Attendance Team.
By deploying through smart, evidence led tasking and strengthening partnerships we will ensure that we can safeguard and protect the most vulnerable in our society and sustain trust in policing.
Frank McManus